Quantification of scenarios for long-term economic and transport trends with ASTRA

The System Dynamics Model ASTRA enables the assessment of long-term impacts of European economic and transport policies with respect to economic, environmental and social effects. It is enhanced to extend the coverage from the current EU member states to the CEEC. ASTRA is characterised by a composition of eight interacting modules with a macro-economics module in its centre. Besides this module there are further models picturing the development of population, transport, regional economics, foreign trade, environment and vehicle fleet and a module for welfare measurement. In the final paper results will be presented for economic and transport scenarios implemented in the model that e.g. could vary changes in taxation, labour productivity, consumption behaviour or trade patterns and that will be compared to a reference scenario. Indicators for the impacts of the selected scenarios will be e.g. GDP, employment or income for the enlarged EU to enable an analysis of economic influences of Accession. Date of Submission: 30.04.2004